Friday, November 11, 2011

Economics and ecologies

This is something that other people, far cleverer than your truly have thought of - however, it is always worthwhile to put some random thoughts down. Consider an economy as an ecology. Most economies will begin as primitive ecosystems - where meagre resources (basic chemicals) will be traded amongst almost lifeless entities. And economies, just like ecosystems, given the right mixture of resources (nutrients) and conditions (an energy surplus, moderate stability in the environment) will evolve. As they do, more complex traits will emerge. At some point, the barter system of trade will become something more sophisticated. A common currency of trade might emerge. In the living world, this is, mostly chlorophyll derived carbohydrates. There will, of course be primary producers, like farmers - or in the biological case, plants. Almost everyone else will use the primary product (crops/carbohydrates) and act as middlemen. At the same time, there will be continue to be niche markets and niche ecologists, such as the lovely anaerobic bacteria which help in fermenting any number of things we love to eat and drink. Think also of the tenacious little buggers (like my old friend Thermus thermophilus) surviving absolutely extreme conditions in volcanic springs like any Glen Beck viewing survivalist who wants nothing to do with trade treaties.

And as every economy grows, it creates a surplus. With a sufficient surplus, there comes the opportunity to do more than merely eke out a living. There will be people who do other things - which, in turn can accelerate the rate of development. The first person to make a wheel was perhaps greeted with the same derision that the first sea-dweller who liked hanging out on beaches was subjected to. There might even be a critical mass, a tipping point for every economy and every ecology after which the rate of growth increases and increases.

And inevitably, in both systems, there will be predators. And there will be predators of predators, superspecialized creatures which usually represent the current peak of development in that system. But such apex predators can only survive when their footprint, their constituency, or simply put, their garden isn't wiped clean. If these predators kill everything that sustains them, then the whole system collapses. Probably examples are many current deserts. (side note- does the goat count as an apex predator, when protected by the benign hands of humans?)

I leave it to your active imagination to think of hedge fund managers as apex predators in today's economy and why their untrammeled greed can lead to the undoing of a functional economy which has taken a long time to build up.

But, before leaving, two links which are the reason I started thinking about such things: the first concerns the use of cellphones as a barter system in Africa - which is a new economic development - and should merit close study. The second is a podcast by Kaspersky's people on frauds in the cellphone economic system. The predators have arrived.

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